Judging overreactions to 2024 NFL draft picks team classes

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Ah, the NFL draft. Our annual rollicking marathon of hope, hype and blind guessing about the future pro performance of college players. It is a long time coming, a long time happening and a heck of a good time for football fans everywhere.

It's also fantastic for an edition of overreactions, where we determine which potential takeaways are legitimate. Nobody knows anything, and everybody thinks they do, and as a result, the reactions among every fan base span a glorious spectrum of emotion.

On Friday morning, I ran into a Giants fan who was absolutely miserable about the team's Malik Nabers pick. I walked 15 steps, turned a corner into a different hallway and met another Giants fan who was absolutely ecstatic about the Nabers pick. There's a 100 percent chance that a pick you hated this weekend will turn into a Pro Bowler, just as there's a 100 percent chance that a pick you thought was a can't-miss prospect will ... well ... miss. So you'd better believe we're doing draft overreactions after the first three rounds.

Jump to: CHI to the playoffs? | Massive mistake for ATL? Brady to LV? | BUF handed Worthy to KC? Jones sticking in NY? | Aiyuk out of SF? Eagles re-overtook Cowboys in NFC East?

The Bears will be a playoff team with one of the most fun offenses in the NFL

When the Bears went 4-2 over their final six games of the 2023 season -- likely saving coach Matt Eberflus' job in the process -- they ranked second in the NFL in defensive efficiency, third in defensive EPA and first in scoring defense, allowing just 15.5 points per game. Half of those games were against playoff rosters, too. The Bears have plenty of reasons to be excited about their defense.

Then on Thursday night, they selected quarterback Caleb Williams at No. 1 and wide receiver Rome Odunze at No. 9 to help juice up an offense that had already added wide receiver Keenan Allen, running back D'Andre Swift and tight end Gerald Everett this offseason. Remember that the Bears didn't have the No. 1 pick in this year's draft because they had the league's worst record. They had it because Carolina went 2-15 after trading that pick to Chicago in 2023. The Bears were a 7-10 team, and it's reasonable to wonder whether the improvements they have made on offense could add enough wins to put them in the playoffs.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

It's not going to be easy. The Packers and Lions are both in the Bears' division, and both were playoff teams last season. The Vikings should still be a factor, too, especially if J.J. McCarthy can hit the ground running at quarterback. But if you believe Williams is an upgrade over Justin Fields at QB -- and the Bears obviously do -- then you have to think this offense is going to be a treat to watch.

DJ Moore ranked sixth in the NFL last season in receiving yards (1,364). Allen ranked 11th (1,243) despite missing four games with an injury. And Odunze led the FBS in receiving yards at Washington (1,640). The Bears are the second team to draft a wide receiver in the top 10 and also add a 1,000-yard receiver in free agency. The last one was the 1996 Jets, who picked Keyshawn Johnson first overall.

Chicago's offensive offseason has been exciting on paper. The only NFL franchise that has never had a quarterback throw for 4,000 yards or 30 touchdown passes in a single season, these Bears have the opportunity to completely change the way their fans have viewed their team for decades. And yes, if Williams is what they believe he can be, they absolutely can be a playoff team.

The Falcons made a massive mistake in the first round and have created a mess

The no-question most shocking selection of the first round was the Falcons' pick of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 overall. And it's not because eighth was a lot sooner than most projections had Penix going.

The reason this pick shocked the NFL was because, just six weeks earlier, the Falcons signed veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract that includes $100 million in guaranteed money. Dropping the proven Cousins into an offense equipped with young stars at wide receiver, tight end and running back felt like the move of a team intending to contend right away, which would lead a reasonable person to believe that team would use the eighth pick on a player (maybe an edge rusher?) who could help the 2024 roster.

Cousins' agent, Mike McCartney, made it clear Thursday night that Cousins was shocked and disappointed by the selection and didn't see it coming. Cousins is the kind of guy who likely will make the best of it, but it still feels like a sudden departure from what the Falcons' plan was six weeks ago. And I think it's fair for Cousins -- and frankly everyone else -- to feel like this could end up being a difficult situation for the Falcons' roster and coaching staff.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Let me be clear right away: The criticism has nothing to do with my, your or the Falcons' evaluation of Penix as a player and prospect. That is irrelevant to this discussion. Penix could turn out to be a star, and frankly, I hope he does. This is about the draft and the Falcons' apparent misunderstanding of its true under-discussed purpose.

In spite of all the time that teams, fans and media spend on scouting the draft, in the end, it is not about scouting. It's about value and resource allocation. In a salary cap league, teams that want to sign and keep their star players as they get more expensive absolutely must get significant contributions from drafted players while they're on their rookie contracts. This is the main reason the Chiefs have continued to win Super Bowls while dishing out huge contracts to Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. The Falcons have created a situation in which they cannot possibly get maximum value out of both Cousins' contract and Penix's rookie contract, though.

First off, their combined cash spent on Cousins and Penix in 2024 alone should come out to around $76.8 million when you factor in their respective signing bonuses and salaries. From there, the possible outcomes include the following:

Cousins plays well enough and wins enough to justify the contract the Falcons gave him in free agency. He starts every game in 2024 and 2025. By the end of the 2025 season, Atlanta has paid Cousins $90 million and Penix around $15 million. With only a $10 million 2026 roster bonus left on the guarantees, the Falcons could then release or trade the 37-year-old Cousins and incur a $25 million dead-money charge on their 2026 cap. Penix will be 26 without an NFL start, and the Falcons will get one season to evaluate him as a starter before deciding on his fifth-year option. Cousins plays the entire 2024 season, but for whatever reason, the Falcons decide next spring that Penix is ready to start in 2025. They could keep Cousins as Penix's backup, but $27.5 million is a lot of money for a backup. Cutting Cousins at this point would result in a $65 million dead-money cap charge. Trading him would cause a $37.5 million dead-money hit. And Atlanta would have paid him $62.5 million for one season. Cousins gets injured or struggles to come back from his Achilles injury and Penix is thrown into the starter's role after an offseason in which he didn't get starter's reps. This might not be a bad outcome, football-wise, if Penix is pro-ready as his résumé indicates. But if he were to succeed in this situation, it would put the Falcons in a very challenging spot in terms of what to do with Cousins and his contract. Cousins struggles, leading the fan base (and perhaps the locker room) to want to see the high draft pick play. Whatever the coaching staff decides in this scenario is tough on both of these players (and perhaps, again, the locker room).

Penix could turn out to be great, but that's not the point. The Falcons mismanaged their resources. There's no way for them to get maximum value from both Cousins' deal and Penix's rookie deal. As a result, their roster won't be as good in the coming years as it could have been -- no matter how well or how much either one of them plays.

Tom Brady will play for the Raiders in 2024

**ducks**

**waits for screaming to stop**

OK, hear me out. Of the QB-needy teams in the middle part of Thursday night's first round, at least one was bound to be left without a signal-caller. The Raiders turned out to be that team after Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, McCarthy, Penix and Bo Nix were all taken in the first 12 picks, the fastest that six QBs have been selected in the common draft era. Their current quarterback depth chart features Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell and Anthony Brown. It's fair to say they're probably on the lookout for upgrade opportunities.

Brady will be 47 years old when the 2024 regular season starts, but just two years ago, he led the NFL in pass completions (490) and attempts (733) in a 4,694-yard season for the Buccaneers at age 45. He has been working on buying a piece of the Raiders and joining Mark Davis' ownership group, but that process hasn't proceeded at the rate he and Davis likely hoped. Still, there's clearly a connection between the two: Davis needs a quarterback, and Brady did drop that comment a couple of weeks ago about coming back if the right situation presented itself.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

I really went back and forth on this one, but I settled on "likely not happening." What Brady said a few weeks ago reminded me of way back when I was covering the Yankees: Roger Clemens would join in midseason because the pitcher felt like he was too old to manage his way through a whole season. Could you imagine Brady doing something like that? I kind of can. But Brady is all about preparation, and I also can't see him jumping into a season without his usual offseason routine to prepare.

Can we completely rule this out? Somewhat astoundingly, no. But if I had to guess, which I do here, I'm guessing it's more likely not to happen. It sure would be fun, though!

The Bills gifted the Chiefs another AFC title with their first-round trade

Scheduled to pick at No. 28 on Thursday night and in need of wide receiver help following the Stefon Diggs trade and the loss of Gabe Davis in free agency, Buffalo traded back to No. 32 in a deal with postseason nemesis Kansas City. The Chiefs used the pick to draft speedy Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy, leading to a nearly unanimous outpouring of the same reaction. WHOA! Mahomes throwing to this guy and Marquise Brown! Unstoppable! What were the Bills thinking???

Verdict: OVERREACTION

The notion that the Chiefs pulled some kind of Jedi mind trick on the Bills to trade up and draft the receiver the Bills actually wanted defies logic. Front offices spend months assessing other teams' needs and which positions they can be expected to target in the draft. There's no way the Bills sent this pick to the Chiefs thinking, "Jeez, I hope they don't pick Worthy!"

Buffalo and Kansas City are in two different places as franchises. The Chiefs have a deep roster that has won the past two Super Bowls and can trade up for players they view as finishing touches. The Bills have seen a ton of talent walk out the door this offseason and need more picks. They added a third-rounder -- they didn't have one at the time -- in this deal. Then they traded back again, from No. 32 to No. 33, and finally drafted a receiver in Florida State's Keon Coleman with the first pick of the second round.

It's true Buffalo hasn't been able to get past Kansas City in the playoffs. But it doesn't mean the Chiefs' front office knows what it's doing and the Bills' front office doesn't. And by the way, do the decisions the Chiefs have made at wide receiver the past few years mean we should assume Worthy will work out -- or that he will definitely be better than Coleman?

Daniel Jones will play all four years of his Giants contract

We went into Thursday night suspecting the Giants would draft Jones' successor in the first round. They played around with trading up to No. 3 for Maye but couldn't make it happen. When their pick came around at No. 6, McCarthy, Penix and Nix were all there, but they took wide receiver Malik Nabers instead. This can be read as at least a slight vote of confidence for Jones, who has $36 million in guaranteed money coming this year and then two more non-guaranteed years after that on the four-year deal he signed in March 2023.

Jones is coming off a season-ending ACL injury, but the Giants expect him to be able to play this season and Nabers gives him a better receiver than he has had at any point during his tenure as the Giants' starter.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Sure, it's possible. And it's certainly more possible now than it would have been if the Giants had traded up for Maye on Thursday. But Jones still carries projected cap numbers of $41.6 million in 2025 and $58.6 million in 2026, so he's going to have to be pretty good to justify them keeping him beyond 2024.

Jones has had neck injuries and knee injuries. He has played one full season out of a possible five. He hasn't thrown more than 15 touchdown passes in a season since he threw 24 as a rookie in 2019. Jones has a lot more to show if he's going to convince the Giants to keep building the team around him rather than working to replace him. If his 2024 season succumbs once again to injury and/or ineffectiveness, the Giants could be looking for quarterback in next year's draft.

Brandon Aiyuk's days with the 49ers are over

Like many of his fellow star wide receivers in a puzzlingly slow extension market, Aiyuk is still waiting for a new contract from the 49ers and has seemed frustrated that he doesn't have one. The 49ers have insisted they don't want to trade him and still hope to sign him, but that hasn't stopped the chatter around the situation and the presumption in league circles that they will eventually decide they have to trade him.

The Niners were having talks with other teams about Aiyuk and fellow wideout Deebo Samuel before and during the first round Thursday, and their selection of Florida receiver Ricky Pearsall at No. 31 did little to quiet that noise.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

First of all, my understanding is that the Niners would prefer to move Samuel, not Aiyuk. Pearsall is more similar as a player to Samuel than he is to Aiyuk. Samuel is scheduled to earn nearly $21 million in salary and count more than $28.6 million against their salary cap in 2024. But in large part because of those numbers, Samuel is the more difficult of the two to trade.

However, I've also been assured many times that the 49ers can carry both Aiyuk and Samuel on this season's team and that they've kept them both abreast of what's going on in terms of trade talks. So I think Samuel is more likely than Aiyuk to be traded, and carrying them (and their big cap numbers) on the roster for one more season is also a more likely outcome at this point than an Aiyuk trade. We'll see. Long way to go between now and September. But I believe the Niners when they say they plan to have Aiyuk around for a while.

The Eagles have overtaken the Cowboys and will win the NFC East in 2024

It's tough to get a handle on exactly what and how the Eagles have done in the draft because it feels like they make a trade every 10 minutes. But through three rounds, they've come up with two new cornerbacks -- first-rounder Quinyon Mitchell from Toledo and second-rounder Cooper DeJean from Iowa (who can also play safety) -- and an upside play in Houston Christian edge rusher Jalyx Hunt. As a result of their wheeling and dealing, the Eagles now have three fourth-round picks, three fifth-round picks and a sixth-round pick on the draft's final day.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys traded down in the first round, picking up Oklahoma tackle Tyler Guyton there and then Kansas State interior offensive lineman Cooper Beebe with the third-rounder they got in the trade. In between, they snagged Western Michigan edge rusher Marshawn Kneeland in the second round and capped their night by selecting Notre Dame linebacker Marist Liufau. Both NFC East rivals used their picks to address glaring needs, but of course the Eagles had a big head start thanks to an active free agency period in which they added edge rusher Bryce Huff and running back Saquon Barkley.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

There are very few things I believe in more strongly than the NFC East repeat curse. No one has won the division in back-to-back seasons since the Andy Reid Eagles did it in 2003-04. Something bizarre always happens. Who saw the Eagles completely falling apart last season after a 10-1 start? Well, anyone who knows about the curse did, since Philly won the division the year before.

So no, it is absolutely not an overreaction to believe Dallas won't repeat as division champs in 2024. Nobody does. There's nothing the Cowboys can do about it. It's bigger than all of us. Heck, the Commanders or Giants could win the division next season. All we know for sure is that it won't be the Cowboys.

For the record, though, the curse is the only reason I didn't write OVERREACTION here. I have no issue with the Cowboys' draft to this point, and their quiet free agency fits their pattern and philosophy. You have to be who you are, and the Cowboys have gone 12-5 each of the past three seasons, so they're doing something right.